Concerning the different analyses undertaken in the course of our research for this study, if we try to identify the phenomenon of the technological and economic disruption that could throw our predictions out, and within which FLOSS will be instrumental, there is one trend all the contributors to this study are unanimous about: “Cloud Computing”. Although we are well aware that it does not cover all the possible development avenues open to FLOSS in the future (for example, a subject such as “Internet of Things” could be an equally interesting tack to pursue for the future) we are jointly convinced that this tendency potentially represents an important driver for their development, and that eventually this new tendency risks disrupting the Industry in general, and provoking profound restructurings of the marketplace, with some players disappearing and new ones appearing. In addition, when it comes to FLOSS in particular, FLOSS eco-systems and enterprises producing FLOSS such as we have known them these last two decades are in real danger. We found it useful, moreover, to complement the detailed study you will find on this subject under Theme 4 and devote a large part of our study to this subject. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to us to concede that in the future a compromise will doubtless be established between everything being “internalized” and everything being “cloud”.
What are the reasons behind “cloud computing” being the next great technological phenomenon of the years to come? And why should it represent a special challenge that will confront FLOSS developers? The four main reasons why Cloud will be the “next big thing” are: the technologies are ripe, the bandwidth exists, the user demand is there, and finally, the economic context for the next few years are conducive to it.
• The technologies are ripe
- FLOSS exist for “social” deployment, or as Social Applications Software. These are already widely used by internet users, for example online office suites, content management systems (CMS), wikis, blogs, shared calendars etc.
- FLOSS for infrastructures such as server farms that need them, already exist e.g. FLOSS tools for Cloud: virtualization, file systems, administration and deployment tools, autonomous middleware, distributed operating systems, etc.
These applications and tools are freely available, and are already widely exploited by providers of online platforms and services, keen to limit the costs of their infrastructures to strict minimum and to maximize their margin on services offered at low prices but distributed in huge numbers.
• The bandwidth exists
The ample bandwidths that are already widely available mean users can use these services online at will. The assessment of the bandwidth requirement is constantly being raised, and the next major evolution that symmetrical bandwidth will bring about (100 Mbs in upload) may well revolutionize the way the network is used as a whole. There is a well-justified fear, however, that drastic reductions in investments are yet to come, and there is no doubt that this reduction will compromise the progress expected and anticipated for.
• Users want it
The success of Social Network of the Facebook and LinkedIn type have led to a large number of Internet users becoming familiar with the use of online services, with their efficiency, their interaction, and with the trivial aspect of Web 2.0 interfaces. The faculty of having access to their current applications and to their data via the Web is today a must, from where the success announced of On Demand Services, and services type applications like SaaS.
• The financial and economic crisis is boosting adoption of Cloud and Services (SaaS)
While computing requirements may continue to grow because of ongoing work to optimize operational performance, the budgets enterprises and public sector bodies are allocating are getting smaller. If providers can offer less costly solutions (without any costs directly attributable to hardware or to system administration), adapted to requirements (collaborative applications, content management, ERP, etc.) and all just as secure, most organizations (whether SMEs, divisions of a major group, or departments within public sector) will be seduced by these opportunities to externalize a large portion of their information systems. Also, organizations aiming to develop tele-working so as to limit staff mobility for cost reasons (housing costs and general expenses, etc.) or because of environmental considerations (transport, or office space availability for example, etc.), will view such solutions favorably. And so in the end it will fall to them to express the last reservations about FLOSS being “good enough”, as opposed to “made-to-measure”, or as opposed to insisting on more sophisticated functionalities (“Good enough is enough”). Also, we can foresee that a “Cloud” market will appear and mature over the next three to five years, largely made up of technologies delivered by FLOSS, and hugely profitable. This market will bring new business opportunities, and we will see new, user-centered services emerge. It will facilitate the emergence of innovative ecosystems, and will attract numerous investments that will encourage an environment favorable to innovation, and so a period of creative research and development. Naturally this kind of evolution allows us to significantly re-assess our road map predictions.
FLOSS is instrumental in building this market, and the low cost economic model “Clouds” presents. But while FLOSS is a major contributor to this market, should one also count on this market to contribute actively to developing FLOSS applications? In the affirmative we could reckon on a strong growth in FLOSS developments as needed by this market, and by extension, strong growth for the developer organizations themselves. But if the reverse is true, might we not see FLOSS vanish altogether? If the value to the user of the software is replaced by the value of the equivalent service offered at lowest possible cost, the user might be tempted to only worry about the financial aspect, and to overlook the fact that the software is free. SaaS providers could, for their part, be tempted to behave like “free riders”. At this point, might we not see a total collapse of FLOSS ecosystems, and their resources “stacked away” by their predators who don’t have the resources to renew them?
In this mindset, we must develop the idea of the “ecology of Free Software”. The FLOSS code bases are a shared asset which only become un-useable if they are not properly maintained: we need to learn how to manage them for the best, and treat them like the rare resource they are, a resource that is all the more precious to society at large.
Another important point is the legal protection that guarantees freedom of the services delivered by the “Cloud”. And what of the FLOSS licenses guaranteeing availability of the code in case of redistribution in a new world where software is available in the form of a service? Would existing licenses continue to guarantee the basic qualities of FLOSS? Could new licenses of the Afero GPL type guarantee free/open services?
Finally, we have to acknowledge that only a small number of players is capable of offering these “Clouds” and services. Users don’t have any choice. What will it be in the future? Will the market be open, or the property of a limited number of players?
This first draft of our study attempts to offer first elements of answers to these open questions, to which, we believe it is absolutely essential that in the months and the years to come, sustainable answers are given. If we don’t respond, we take the risk of seeing the promise opened up by the FLOSS - of an equitable Information Society and a sustainable Knowledge Economy such as those that are ideally profiled for the dawning of 2020 – disappear altogether. Certain technologies are necessary which will have to be developed in common and be usable by everyone, not just for economic reasons (optimization of resources, reductions in R&D costs, emergence of new markets) but for the well-being of our society, (equitable access, transparent and non-discriminating to the technologies upholding the Information Society and contributing to the development of the Knowledge Economy).
We are today facing a sea change just as transformational as that caused by Linux not long ago. We think that “Cloud Computing” could serve as a catalyst enabling communities, enterprises, and ecosystems to develop twice as fast as they did during this first wave of FLOSS, symbolized by Linux, and which has taken ten years (from 1990 to 2000) to really gather momentum. The possibility of FLOSS dissolving within “Cloud” and being ‘diluted’ as a result is not negligible, and could also trigger a salutary shock wave for communities, adversely affecting their dynamism.
The risk of finding ourselves once again faced with a monopoly around a dominant proprietary platform thanks to the ‘network effect’ and (almost ironically) thanks to the opening up of its interfaces, seems to us sufficiently probable that we strongly believe an unprecedented reaction is needed from FLOSS Communities, but also from Industry and regular users.
“Cloud” opens new horizons for creating wealth for enterprises thanks to the development of a range of new marketing and sales services, but also for public organizations, associations, NGO’s seeking to improve the services they deliver to users, as well as for certain Internet users whose “entrepreneurial” spirit drives them to be service providers. Must we resign ourselves to failing to seize this opportunity for development, and relinquish it for the exclusive profit of a single brilliant and visionary player – however formidable a player that may turn out to be?
So it is the risk of a new monopoly appearing and jeopardizing all these opportunities that leads us to predict over the next five years the appearance of Open Platforms delivering Open Services (paid or toll-free). These are veritable collective initiatives, built around shared infrastructures deployed thanks to the collaboration between different players in our Information Society (among which one could find administrations, local authorities, telco operators, FAI, FLOS Communities, NGO’s, federations, etc.), for which they will guarantee transparency, security and availability.
Put at the disposition of any service creator, these free platforms favor the blossoming of different ecosystems, and the inter-relationships between the numerous players in these different ecosystems as required by their activities or their ‘sociology’. Using roads infrastructures as analogy, these platforms will be the A-roads and motorways which will bring the members of the Information Society together, and will facilitate exchanges of goods and virtual services for enterprises, access to virtual learning sessions for scholars, and access to e-administration for citizens.
Finally, such platforms will be able to serve as a model for any enterprise wanting to implement a similar infrastructure at the center of a private network so as to benefit from all the advantages “Cloud Computing” offers (optimization of resources, and knowledge of the enterprise through setting up the relevant networks) without having to suffer any of the disadvantages (vendor lock-in, externalization of data, etc.).
Industry alone cannot resolve every problem. So we would like to send out our hope and wish that FLOSS players all over the world, in the interests of equitable sharing of knowledge and technologies, will join forces and share resources so as to favor the emergence of open platforms and alternative open and toll-free services, taking as their model existing free content sites such as Wikipedia. This would also encourage the development and use of alternative technologies such as Peer-to-Peer for example, for knowledge management (cf. Semantic Web) and the storage of open data.
These efforts will only be effective with:
- strong commitment from public sector bodies and a legal environment that regulates creation of wealth fairly,
- an alignment of R&D investments at the supranational level via financing programs, competitiveness centers and administrations,
- a voluntary effort from the industry in general, and in collaboration with research and the communities, with the objective of creating sustainable ecosystems,
- closer and more efficient joint working between the different FLOSS communities and their projects,
- active participation from the main FLOSS users
- deployment of an open infrastructure that is shared, and available for the benefit of everyone.
At the top of our list of priorities, therefore, we need:
- Open Platforms that are interoperable, and that offer services with interfaces based on open standards and implemented in the FLOSS framework so as to guarantee their free deployment so they are free of any adverse effects, or susceptibility to break-in. At the same time data integrity, and respect for the private life of individuals and sovereignty rights must be granted.
- Open Platforms designed expressly to host the next “social applications” (CMS, Wikis, micro Blogs, etc.), these being indispensable to public sector bodies, but also to enterprises and to citizens.
- to establish clear, unambiguous legal documents defining what Open Services are, and how they are to be used and reused.
- to nurture an open and fair dialogue at global level with the various partner providers of platforms and services, Industry and public sector bodies, but also with the world of research, and not forgetting users themselves, so they can jointly agree to build these Open Services Platforms in which commercial and public services can live comfortable alongside one another.